Two Past Hurricanes, OIR Data Give Idea of What to Expect From Isaias in Florida
If Isaias turns into a hurricane and hits the Florida Panhandle on Friday, as forecast, a population of more than 1.4 million lies in its path. The number of those that are insured property owners is less than clear.
Market intelligence reports from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation do not include property insurers that consider their data to be “trade secrets” and who elect not to make monthly and quarterly reports to OIR. Some of the largest carriers in Florida, including State Farm Florida, Universal Property & Casualty, and Slide Insurance, for example, do not show up on the OIR reports—but are likely to carry some of the largest numbers of property policies in the region.
For those carriers that do report, American Bankers Insurance Company of Florida, part of Assurant, and the state-created Citizens Property Insurance Corp. hold the most policies with wind coverage in the 10-county area most likely to be hit by Isaias if it continues on its predicted path. The numbers include commercial and residential policies, from Pensacola to the Big Bend.
As of the end of July, the latest data available, American Bankers had 10,630 policies with wind coverage, but just $267 million in value in the 10 Panhandle counties. Citizens, which has shed more than a million policies statewide in the last three years, reported 8,882 policies with wind, and more than $3.2 billion in value in the Panhandle.
“Citizens is monitoring Hurricane Isaias and will be ready to respond. We urge Citizens’ policyholders and all Panhandle residents to prepare now,” Citizens’ media relations manager said Wednesday. Citizens did not provide the number of policyholders that now carry flood insurance, in keeping with state law.
American Bankers also said it plans to have teams available where needed.
“We are closely monitoring the storm and have reached out to potentially affected policyholders so they know what to expect and where to turn if they need us,” an Assurant spokesperson said in an email Wednesday. “Our experienced claims teams are coordinating with our network of partners, and we stand ready to scale our efforts and deploy additional resources to help customers navigate recovery and move forward as quickly as possible.”
Other insurers that reported thousands of policyholders in the Panhandle include Florida Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance, which had $6.1 billion in exposure on 8,351 policies in the area. Castle Key Indemnity and Castle Key Insurance, both of which are Allstate units, together reported 7,465 policies with almost $1.7 billion in exposure in the area.
Cypress Insurance, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, reported almost $2.2 billion of exposure in the region and some 4,900 policies with wind coverage.
For the larger Gulf Coast region that may be affected by Isaias, including all of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, State Farm companies insure the most homeowners, with $2.8 billion in direct premiums written, AM Best financial rating agency reported Wednesday.
The 10-county northwest Florida area in the crosshairs includes mid-size cities, two U.S. Air Force bases, multiple resort areas with condominiums, as well as farms and some sparsely populated stretches. The extent of insured losses will depend on the intensity of the storm, where the eyewall moves ashore, the size of the storm surge and amount of rainfall.
Two hurricanes that hit the Panhandle region in the last decade may give some idea of what insurance carriers and adjusters can expect.
If Isaias grows to be a powerful Category 5 hurricane, as did Hurricane Michael in 2018, it could prove costly. Michael’s eyewall made landfall at Mexico Beach, Florida, east of Panama City, and the storm caused more than $9 billion in insured losses in the area, according to claims data from OIR.
That’s close to $12 billion in today’s dollars. The storm resulted in some 159,000 claims. Half of those were from homeowners. Some 129,656 claims were closed with payment by late 2020, the OIR information shows.
Bay County, home to the tourist-heavy Panama City and one of the counties now in Isaias’ predicted path, saw the most claims from Michael, with more than 95,000.
On the other hand, if Isaias fails to strengthen significantly, it could prove to be more like Hurricane Sally, which came ashore just west of the Pensacola area in 2020. Sally was a Category 2 storm with highest winds of 110 mph. It resulted in less than 72,000 claims and about $577 million in insured losses, OIR data indicates.
Some 29,380 Sally claims were closed with payment, as of October 2020.
Map at top of article: Forecast rainfall from Isaias
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