Texas Flood Threat Persists as Gulf System Nears Storm Status

The threat of floods continues across Texas, northeast Mexico and the US Gulf Coast as tropical moisture pours into the region and the odds rise that the Atlantic’s first named storm of the year could develop late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Flooding rain is falling on both sides of the US-Mexico border, with Houston potentially receiving another 5 inches (13 centimeters) Tuesday. The northeastern Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas could each see close to 6 inches, according to US and Mexican forecasters.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has declared a disaster across 101 counties threatened by the downpours.

A low-pressure system draped across the US-Mexico border is forecast to drift into the Gulf, where it has a 60% chance of becoming “a short-lived tropical storm later today or on Wednesday,” the US National Hurricane Center said. If the system becomes sufficiently organized and its winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour, it would be named Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season.

“Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread flooding, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding,” Senior Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch wrote in an outlook.

While some areas around Houston received less rain than initially forecast, communities to the north and west were inundated, said Brian Hurley, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center. On Monday, 2.88 inches of rain fell at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Caldwell, Texas, about 100 miles northwest of Houston, received 9.02 inches, the highest total reported in the state so far.

With another round of rain forecast, Houston’s FIFA Fan Festival planned for Tuesday has been shortened to 6:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. The “hours of operation remain subject to change if the weather conditions are unfavorable to a safe environment for attendees,” FIFA World Cup 26 Houston said in a post on X that was reposted by the Harris County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Houston is scheduled to host a World Cup match Wednesday between Portugal and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. local time, according to FIFA’s match page.