Texas Power Grid Faces Major Test From Season’s Biggest Storm

A powerful winter storm descending on Texas on Friday will be one of the toughest tests of the state’s electric grid since the system collapsed during a deadly 2021 freeze.

Ice is predicted for the Dallas area, the Panhandle is bracing for snow, and the capital city Austin is forecast to dip to 16F (-9C) — roughly 25F chiller than normal. The cold is set to persist through the weekend before readings start to moderate early next week, said Brian Hurley, a senior branch forecaster with the US Weather Prediction Center.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s main grid operator, issued a weather watch from Saturday through Tuesday with the possibility of higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves. Even so, ERCOT expects the grid to endure.

While some of the forecast conditions resemble the historic February 2021 freeze that killed more than 240 people and paralyzed the entire state, Texas has one thing going for it: this storm will be shorter and less intense than what the National Weather Service calls the “Great Texas Freeze,” which lasted the better part of nine days.

During that disaster, outages knocked out power to nearly 10 million people across the US South, leaving them without heat, lights, the ability to cook, while bursting water in homes and businesses. It was the first $1 billion disaster of that year.

And even as population growth, crypto mining, data centers and corporate relocations have contributed to surging electric demand, Texas has invested in fortifying its grid over the past five years.

As of early Thursday, ERCOT projected peak demand of 82.6 gigawatts on Monday, which would surpass last year’s all-time winter high of 80.2 gigawatts. But it expects to have sufficient supply — 93.3 gigawatts of capacity. (One gigawatt is equivalent to a traditional nuclear reactor.)

“Texas has seen substantial growth in solar and battery storage capacity — with nearly 40 gigawatts of new solar and storage capacity added between end of 2021 to 2025,” said Helen Kou, an analyst at BloombergNEF. “Ongoing expansion of these resources, plus continued winter weatherization grid investment, will help keep the grid prepared.”

The main threats to most of Texas will be ice on powerlines and trees as temperatures plunge. Dallas is expected to dip to 8F Sunday night, with Houston falling to 22F, the weather service said. Snow will be mainly across far northern Texas and the Panhandle, but many areas in the central part of the state will get between 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch of ice, which can snap tree branches and drop power lines, Hurley said.

A winter storm watch extends more than 1,800 miles from eastern Arizona to western New York, while extreme cold warnings and advisories push south from the North Dakota’s border with Canada into Texas. A wide area across the eastern US from Washington to New York into New England may get as much as 10 inches of snow Sunday, Hurley said. Air travelers across the US will likely face cancellations and long delays.

The storm’s worst will likely be across the South, from eastern Texas and Louisiana to Arkansas and then across parts of North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia where as much of an inch of ice will encrust trees and power lines leading to widespread outages.

“Ice is going to be a bigger deal because it has more impacts,” Hurley said.

In the wake of the 2021 storm, Texas required generators and powerline operators to make sure facilities can operate during freezing temperatures. Texas also adopted market reforms designed to secure extra power reserves during times of grid stress.

Officials also say they improved emergency planning and coordination among utilities, the state grid operator and state agencies. Still, the Texas grid remains relatively isolated from the rest of the country’s bulk power network, leaving the state largely dependent on supplies within its own territory.

For Texas, the forecast remains locked in, but the saving grace is that “it doesn’t seem to be as long” as 2021, Hurley said.