Accuweather Predicts Above-Average 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Accuweather meteorologists are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with as many as 20-25 named storms.
The 2024 hurricane season is forecast to feature 8-12 hurricanes including 4-7 major hurricanes.
This year has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in one season, Accuweather experts say. Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida & Carolinas face heightened risk of named storms.
“All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” said Accuweather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DeSilva. “There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020.”
Forecasters at Accuweather call for a dramatic shift from the 2023 hurricane season in which there were 19 named storms but only four storms that directly impacted the United States.
Accuweather experts say the potential for destructive hurricanes is driven by above-average sea-surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the Main Development Region.
Atlantic water temperatures in March were just as warm or warmer as March 2005 and March 2020, years that saw catastrophic hurricane impacts in the US.
The 2020 hurricane season broke records with 11 different landfalls in the US, causing an estimated $60 billion to $65 billion dollars in damage and economic losses, Accuweather data shows.
Unusually warm sea temperatures could also support tropical systems forming before the start of the official hurricane season on June 1, according to Accuweather experts.
“When you look back at historical sea surface temperature in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, recent average water temperatures jump off the chart. They are the highest observed this early in the season in the available records,” said Accuweather chief meteorologist Jon Porter. “This is a very concerning development considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80 percent of the storms form which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes.”
Other factors Accuweather points to that could contribute to a volatile hurricane season include the shift from an El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern, a stronger African jet stream that could lead to more robust tropical waves to form later in the season, and changes in location and strength of steering winds.