Saturday Update: Hurricane Harvey Expected to Weaken to Tropical Storm
Early this morning, Hurricane Harvey weakened to a category 1 hurricane as it moved farther inland over southeastern Texas. It continues to bring “life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast,” according to the National Hurricane Center. Harvey could fall below hurricane force later today. As a tropical storm, Harvey would still bring catastrophic and life-threatening flooding across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday.
Editor’s Note: At 4 a.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center released this bulletin:
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
Harvey’s eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours, and maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall. Radar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are showing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in the northwestern eyewall. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 85 kt, which could still be a little generous. Continued weakening is expected as Harvey’s eye continues to move inland, and maximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force later today. A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after that point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm strength at least through day 4, especially if part of its circulation remains over water. The updated NHC intensity forecast continues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).
The initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now estimated to be 325/5 kt. As the steering currents around Harvey continue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander inland over southeastern Texas. Only a few models show any sort of definitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period, and for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over southeastern Texas through day 5. The NHC track forecast depicts Harvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the coast. This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the middle of next week.
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