Seasonal Tornado Forecasts Being Developed by Oklahoma Researchers

Weather researchers in Oklahoma are working on a method to develop seasonal tornado forecasts that could predict the likelihood of the severe storms weeks in advance.

Harold Brooks, senior research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, says scientists could be a few years away from being able to release seasonal forecasts for tornadoes.

Rather than predicting individual outbreaks, Brooks says the forecasts would predict how likely tornadoes were over the course of a few weeks or an entire season.

The Oklahoman reports the National Weather Service has published seasonal forecasts for other weather phenomena, including hurricanes. Brooks says that unlike hurricanes, the factors that determine whether tornadoes are likely tend to move quickly, making long-term forecasts for tornadoes more difficult.