US Climate Prediction Center Sees 69% Chance of Historic El Niño

The El Niño building in the Pacific Ocean is increasingly expected to reach a strength not seen in 76 years of record keeping.

“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the US Climate Prediction Center said in a forecast Thursday. The El Niño has “a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”

The agency noted that temperatures in July across the Pacific rivaled only those of 1997, which was also considered a powerful event. Thursday’s forecast is the most definitive statement yet from the Climate Prediction Center on the subject.

El Niño, declared in June, strengthened in July, with Pacific surface temperatures reaching 2C (3.6F) above normal in some areas and 1.4C above normal in the central ocean, the climate center, an arm of the National Weather Service, said Thursday. The event is expected to intensify through year-end, fueled by unusually warm water deep in the equatorial Pacific.

In coming months, El Niño will likely bring above-normal temperatures to much of the Northern Hemisphere, including western North America and southern Europe, the World Meteorological Organization said in a July report. India, Australia, the Caribbean and Central America may be drier than normal through October.

The Climate Prediction Center also said there’s a 100% chance El Niño will continue through March and a 97% likelihood it will last through April.

Photo: Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images