Modeler KCC Puts Privately Insured Losses at $6.4B From Helene

Karen Clark & Co., the well-regarded storm modeling and analytics firm, estimated that privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will be about $6.4 billion – from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states.

The figure includes residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobile losses—as well as business interruption—but does not include boats or National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims, the company said in a statement Wednesday.

“In contrast to a typical Category 4 hurricane, most of the damage occurred far from the landfall point, with higher wind damage in Georgia than Florida, more surge damage in Tampa, and the most significant inland flood damage in North Carolina,” the firm noted.

The estimate is slightly higher than A.M. Best’s prediction of about $5 billion, released just after Helene churned across the region, and Gallagher Re’s upper range of $6 billion for privately insured losses.

The insured losses from Hurricane Helene appear to fall short of landing the storm on a list of the costliest hurricanes, although the totals in the graph include NFIP losses, which are not known.

The loss estimate from Karen Clark & Co. (KCC) for Helene is about three times more than estimates after Hurricane Idalia, which followed a similar path about a year ago. Helene made landfall on Sept. 26 and packed sustained winds of 140 mph, compared with Idalia’s 125-mph winds.

Helene also dumped a record-setting 20 inches of rain in parts of western North Carolina, leading to catastrophic flooding in Asheville and other areas. In Asheville, the previous record for the water level of the French Broad River was 23.1 feet, set during the Great Flood of 1916, KCC noted. This record was exceeded by about 1.5 feet on Sept. 27 due to the rains from Helene. In fact, more than a foot of rain fell in portions of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Standard home insurance policies exclude flood and storm surge. According to Moody’s, less than 1% of homeowners in Asheville and Buncombe County, North Carolina, have NFIP policies.

“The flood insurance protection gap has significant implications for disaster recovery efforts following events like Hurricane Helene, as low-coverage communities may face slower recovery,” said Firas Saleh, director of project management at Moody’s.

In storm-weary Florida, Helene jogged slightly east of Tallahassee, keeping some of its strongest winds away from a densely populated area, KCC noted.

“The strongest winds were felt mainly in the sparsely populated area between Lake City and Tallahassee. Losses would have been higher with a direct hit on Tallahassee, but the strongest winds remained well east of the city, leading to low losses in the area,” KCC said.

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Property damage from coastal flooding was concentrated around Tampa Bay, particularly in Clearwater and St. Petersburg, even though the peak storm surge heights were observed at locations north of Cedar Key.

The storm surge from Helene broke records along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast—some of which were set just a year ago, when Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane. Helene is now the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend. Cedar Key received 10.3 feet of storm surge from Helene, shattering the previous record of 6.9 feet set during Idalia.

Private flood insurance claims from Helene in Florida, as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, had topped 2,300 – five times the number seen in Hurricane Idalia. All Florida claims had tallied 79,360, with total estimated losses at more than $777 million, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation reported. Many Helene claims in Florida have been filed with its two largest property insurers, state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp. and State Farm.

As of October 2, State Farm said it has received over 69,400 claims from 14 states impacted by Helene. The states with the highest claim counts are Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina, the insurer added.

Photo: Cindy White looks over the devastation inside her home in Morganton, North Carolina. The adjacent Catawba River flooded due to the torrential rains. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)