NOAA Increases Prediction for Atlantic Hurricane Season to “Above-Normal”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is increasing its prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to “above-normal” activity.

Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are likely to offset the usually limiting atmospheric conditions caused by El Niño, NOAA said.

NOAA previously predicted near-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, but forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%. The likelihood of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is down to 25% compared to 40% in NOAA’s May forecast.

NOAA predicts a range of 14-21 named storms, with 6-11 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) and 2-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) for the six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30. NOAA said it has a 70% confidence for these ranges.

The Atlantic basin has already recorded five storms that have reached tropical storm strength. El Niño normally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but the limiting conditions associated with El Niño have been slow to develop, NOAA said.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said there is a greater than 95% chance that the ongoing El Niño will continue through the autumn 2023.

“If those El Niño-related changes move in quickly, activity could be near the lower end of our ranges,” said Rosencrans. “If local conditions in the Atlantic prevail for longer than anticipated, activity could be near the upper end of our predicted ranges.”

The hurricane research team at Colorado State University released its final forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season calling for above-average activity. The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 18 named storms, including 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. CSU had previously predicted a slightly below average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

“Given the conflicting signals between a likely moderate/strong El Niño and a much warmer-than-normal tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook,” CSU’s team said.

The Atlantic hurricane season historically peaks between August and October, when about 90% of tropical storms tend to occur.

NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

CSU Research Team Forecasts Slightly Below Average 2023 Hurricane Season