19 Named Storms Predicted by CSU Team; 70% Chance Major Hurricane Hits U.S.

Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a very active 2022 Atlantic season, with 19 named storms.

The average for named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through November) is 14.4.

The initial forecast from the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project calls for nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, classified as at least Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111mph. Seasonal forecasts from CSU were started 39 years ago by meteorology professor William Gray, who died in 2016.

Of note, the CSU team puts a high probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. They said there is a 71% chance of a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline. This chance is about 20 points higher than the average for the last century.

The probability of this type of storm hitting the East Coast or Gulf Coast of 47% and 46%, respectively, CSU said.

Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2022: AccuWeather

“One of the reasons for the above-average Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from CSU is due to the likely lack of El Nino this summer/fall,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist and author of the forecast report, on Twitter. “El Nino generally increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes.”

Unusually warm seas temperatures currently present in the Atlantic and Caribbean are also favorable for storm formations.

There were 21 named storms in 2021, including Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as one of the strongest hurricanes ever with maximum sustained winds of 150mph. There were seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes in 2021. Seven named storms and two hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. The predetermined list of storm names have been exhausted for the last two years.

CSU issues a forecast update in June, July and August.