Global Insured Catastrophe Losses Fall to Lowest 9-Month Level Since 2019: Report

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached US$92 billion during the first nine months of 2026, 29% below the 10-year average (US$128 billion) and the lowest year-to-date insured loss total since 2019, according to Gallagher Re.

The insurance industry has now experienced six consecutive quarters without a single natural catastrophe event generating more than US$10 billion in insured losses, representing one of the longest such stretches in decades, said Gallagher Re’s Q3 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.

Global economic losses (which include both insured and uninsured losses) reached US$242 billion during the nine-month period, which marked the lowest Q1-Q3 total since 2015 and was around 33% lower than the 10-year Q1-Q3 average, the report said.

Despite 54 billion-dollar economic loss events and 24 billion-dollar insured loss events globally, both broadly in line with historical averages, lower event severity has kept aggregate losses well below average, the report said.

SCS Dominate Nat Cat Claims

While catastrophe losses have remained subdued, severe convective storms (SCS) continued to dominate industry losses, Gallager Re said, noting that SCS globally accounted for nearly 60% of all insured catastrophe losses.

In the US alone, insurers incurred at least US$43 billion in SCS losses through Q3, marking a record fourth consecutive year in which annual insured losses from SCS exceeded US$40 billion (adjusted for inflation). Europe has recorded at least US$9 billion in SCS insured losses, which includes a US$3.8 billion loss from a late-August outbreak alone.

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricanes Lala, Lowell, and Nolo each brought notable impacts to the Hawaiian Islands in Q3. Hurricane Lala was particularly impactful as it made a close pass to the Big Island in mid-August and became Hawaii’s second billion-dollar weather-related economic disaster of the year, Gallagher Re said.

Hurricane Isaias became the first major hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season and is expected to drive a low to mid-single-digit billion insured loss, Gallagher Re said.

Isaias has not been included in the US$92 billion nine-month loss total as it made landfall as a Category 2 storm in the Florida Panhandle on Oct. 9, Gallagher Re said, noting that Isaias set the record for the latest first hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin, dating back to 1851.

El Niño Suppresses Hurricane Activity

The recent period of below-average catastrophe losses should not be interpreted as evidence of reduced underlying nat cat risk, Gallagher Re said.

The report explained that one of the defining climate developments of 2026 has been the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions – event that have historically been linked “to suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity and elevated tropical cyclone activity across parts of the Pacific basin.”

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a greater than 81% probability that El Niño will maintain a “very strong” status into January 2027, peaking during the fourth quarter before weakening during 2027, the report said.

“At first glance, 2026 appears to have been a relatively favorable year for the insurance industry. Global insured losses have remained below recent averages, largely because the industry has avoided a meaningful concentration of major loss events,” commented Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re, in a statement accompanying the report.

“We have now gone six consecutive quarters without a natural catastrophe generating more than US$10 billion in insured losses, an unusually long stretch by historical standards,” he said.

“Periods like this provide an opportunity to reassess exposures, accumulations, and portfolio resilience. History tells us that more active and costlier periods can return, and organizations that use quieter years to prepare are often best positioned when conditions do eventually shift.”

Photograph: People salvage the contents of their destroyed mini mart in the aftermath of Hurricane Isaias in Milton, Fla., on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)