Russia Eyeing Sabotage, Other Attacks in Europe, Officials Warn
Russia may escalate attacks against the Baltic States and Poland, a European intelligence official said, amid rising concern that Moscow wants to further intimidate nations supporting Ukraine.
There are indications that Russian intelligence and security services are looking at so-called hybrid warfare operations, which could include infrastructure sabotage or false-flag attacks, the intelligence official said, declining to be named in order to speak freely.
Separately, the US Central Intelligence Agency told countries in the region about the potential of a future Russian attack, a European government official said. The agency declined to comment.
Read more: Germany Sees Russian Covert Attacks as Prelude to Wider Conflict
At the same time, it’s also possible Russia merely wants to give the impression it’s considering escalating attacks in Europe to sow fear as part of an information operation, the government official said. The official said there were no signs that Russia is preparing a conventional attack or an invasion.
Russia, which was implicated in a thwarted 2024 plot to assassinate a German defense industry executive, has repeatedly threatened retaliation against Baltic states over what Moscow alleges is Ukraine’s use of their territory to launch military drones. In one instance, Russia’s ambassador to the UN warned Latvia that “membership in NATO will not protect you from retaliation,” adding that “the coordinates of decision-making centers in Latvia are well-known.”
There is no evidence to suggest the countries have been involved in Ukraine’s drone attacks. At times, drones have strayed into their airspace after being jammed.
“The biggest concern right now is a series of sabotage operations,” said Seth Jones, a former Pentagon official with extensive US special operations experience who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “From assassinations to accidental drones or missiles, little green men — operating in or around the Baltic countries — to explosions in various facilities.”
The warnings come after Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport, a major NATO military logistics hub and a European base for Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, temporarily suspended flights last week after an armed drone was found next to a Ukrainian aircraft. A cargo plane also collided in midair with a small, unidentified object, while drones were seen flying over a key military base in western Germany the next day.
“One of the possible messages or effects they want to achieve with such a thing is — don’t mess with us,” said Lieutenant Colonel Thilo Geiger, a hybrid warfare researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, commenting on the drone incident. “Care about your German national interests and stop caring about your neighbors.”
Ukraine has launched repeated drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, including large oil refineries. NATO members have pledged $80 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2026 and “at least the equivalent levels” in 2027 at the alliance’s July summit in Ankara.
Last week, Lithuania’s defense minister warned Russia was considering deploying captured Ukrainian drones in a false-flag drone attack on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. Five individuals are currently on trial in Lithuania for organizing attacks in 2024 on behalf of Russian military intelligence.
Lithuania’s president also previously warned that Russia could be planning attacks on energy and communications infrastructure in the region.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has dismissed the warnings of Russian attacks as “horror stories” designed to justify pushing NATO military assets into the Baltic states, Russian state-run news agency Tass reported.
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, researchers have suggested Moscow has greatly expanded a so-called shadow war against Europe. Reports suggest the number of Russian hybrid attacks in the region quadrupled between 2022 and 2023, then tripled between 2023 and 2024.
Though data on the attacks remains limited, the US Helsinki Commission identified nearly 150 hybrid operations in NATO countries possibly linked to Russia between February 2022 and November 2024.
Photograph: Police cars near the railway damaged in an explosion in Mika, Poland on Nov. 17, 2025; photo credit: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images
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