Trade and War Worries Haunt Davos as World Seen ‘on a Precipice’: WEF Survey
A global backdrop increasingly threatened by trade disputes and inter-state conflict is how respondents in a World Economic Forum survey see things panning out in 2026.
The annual poll of 1,300 leaders and experts by the organization that will next week host meetings of the business and political elite in Switzerland describes how crises in the coming year are likely to emanate most either from commercial tensions or actual military encounters.
Respondents specified “geoeconomic confrontation” and “state-based armed conflict” as the two biggest risks, in answers delivered even before US President Donald Trump’s high-stakes trade talks with his Chinese counterpart in October, and this month, his attack on Venezuela and his declaration of intent to annex Greenland.
The perceived dangers chime with the geopolitical tone of next week’s gathering in the resort of Davos. An unusually large agglomeration of more than 60 heads of state and government — including Trump and most of his Group of Seven peers — may draw the spotlight from the usual throng of business leaders also attending.
Last year’s Global Risks Report from the WEF dwelled most on war against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, while prior ones cited fake news and inflation as the most pressing worries.
This time, the assessment captures the anxieties of decision-makers rattled by the White House incumbent’s now-proven tendency to jolt allies and rivals alike with his muscular approach to trade and geopolitics, and Beijing’s readiness to respond in kind.
“A new competitive order is taking shape,” Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, said in a preface to the report. “We are witnessing the turmoil caused by kinetic wars, the deployment of economic weapons for strategic advantage, and growing fragmentation across societies.”
Her report describes the world as “balancing on a precipice,” with “geopolitical and geoeconomic” risks dominating. It is based on a survey of “global leaders and experts across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society” carried out between Aug. 12 to Sept. 22.
Half of respondents anticipated a “stormy” or “turbulent” outlook in the next two years, a notable increase from the 2025 report. The proportion rises to 57% when looking a whole decade ahead, though that result is actually an improvement from last time.
The most significant worsening in perception on a two-year horizon was in the category of “economic risks.” Aside from the threat of “geoeconomic confrontation” already mentioned, worries about a downturn, inflation and bursting asset bubbles all intensified.
The key protagonist of much the report’s narrative will be a star attraction next week. Trump will speak in Davos at 2:30 p.m. local time on Wednesday, attending alongside US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and America’s biggest ever delegation to the forum. Six G-7 leaders in total may turn up, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Photograph: Snow covered residential buildings in Davos, Switzerland; photo credit: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Related: