Australian State Faces Catastrophic Fire Risk From Heat Wave
Australia is bracing for catastrophic fire risk in parts of Victoria on Friday as the country swelters through its worst heat wave since the Black Summer bushfires in the summer of 2019 and 2020.
Temperatures rose above 45C (113F) in some places as the heat wave baked Adelaide and South Australia, before being driven east by a low pressure trough toward the heavily-populated states of Victoria and New South Wales. Melbourne recorded its hottest temperature since January 2020 on Wednesday.
The heat wave is expected to move toward New South Wales, home to Australia’s largest city of Sydney, on Thursday, while thunderstorm conditions including bursts of dry lightning on Friday are forecast to escalate the fire risk across Victoria.
Several bushfires are already burning in the state, with evacuation orders issued for small communities in the path of the blazes. The Bureau of Meteorology is currently forecasting extreme or catastrophic fire danger for all parts of Victoria on Friday, the highest possible warning levels.
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“There is very little if any rainfall expected with these thunderstorms,” the bureau’s Sarah Scully said in a video forecast, adding that the rain was mostly evaporating before it reached the ground. “This leads to a risk of dry lightning that could potentially ignite new fires. But as well, you’ve got the damaging wind gusts that will hit the ground and spread out, creating potentially erratic fire behavior.”
Australia’s most recent major bushfire disaster took place over the 2019-20 Southern Hemisphere summer. Known as Black Summer, the wildfires devastated 24 million hectares of land, killing 33 people and potentially billions of animals. A report published by Australia’s Climate Council think tank on Tuesday found that millions of people on the outskirts of major cities are now at risk of urban wildfires due to urban sprawl.
The heat wave could drive a spike in electricity demand and wholesale prices due to increased air-conditioner use, according to Johanna Bowyer, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Coal- and gas-fired power plants may see their maximum capability limited due to reduced cooling efficiency at higher temperatures, she said.
Consecutive days of scorching temperatures can also strain energy infrastructure and bushfire smoke can affect power transmission lines, said Alex Zadnik, business manager for Australia at MetraWeather.
Variable weather conditions may also affect renewable energy output at a time of high demand. Some cloud cover around Melbourne tomorrow may crimp rooftop solar output, and wind speeds could drop off Friday afternoon over western Victoria while the mercury remains high elsewhere, Zadnik said.
“It’s a complex day with lots of risks,” he said of Friday, when Victoria is forecast to see its highest temperatures this week.