El Niño Likely to Develop Between Sept and Nov, Australian Weather Bureau Says
El Niño is associated with extreme weather phenomena, from wildfires to tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.
The World Meteorological Organization said last month the weather pattern had emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
But the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has not yet matched that call. It has issued an El Niño alert, which it says has historically led to the event around 70% of the time.
“Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds and have continued to warm slightly over the last fortnight,” the bureau said in a statement on its website.
“Climate models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2024.”
However, the bureau said the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator used to assess El Niño development, was below El Niño thresholds and that trade winds and Pacific cloudiness had not yet demonstrated sustained El Niño patterns.
“Overall, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Niño events,” the bureau said.
El Niño typically suppresses spring rainfall in eastern Australia, which poses a risk to the region’s wheat crop.
The bureau maintained its long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across large parts of Australia from September to November.
(Reporting by Peter Hobson; editing by Kim Coghill)