CHESAPEAKE BAY STORM WARNING

Scientists show that hurricane storm surges in the Chesapeake Bay could get dramatically worse than the flooding caused by Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003. Under some conditions, the researchers found, a Category 4 hurricane could produce storm surges as high as 18 or 20 feet in Baltimore at high tide, 10 feet above Isabel’s high mark. The 18-foot storm surges are possible along the shoreline of Baltimore County.

“I guess I’m a little surprised the values are as high as they are,” said Wilson Shaffer, of the National Weather Service. He said the precise conditions needed to generate an 18-foot storm surge are rare but “within the realm of possibility.”