Greater Chance of Major Hurricane on the East Coast This Year, But Less in Gulf, Scientist Says

Multiple computer models from forecasting organizations across the globe have predicted a very active hurricane season starting next month, spelling trouble for much of the coastal Southeastern tates.

The models are probably going to be proven correct, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at one of the best known of those organizations, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

“There’s a lot of excitement and nervousness about this year’s hurricane season,” Klotzback said in May at the Target Markets Program Administrators Association’s Mid-Year Meeting in Tampa.

Klotzback and fellow researchers have poured decades of weather data into modeling efforts. As of late April, CSU’s modeling shows a range in the number of storms in the Atlantic Ocean, with 23 as the mid-point in the range. That’s well above the average season, which produces about 14 storms.

About 11 of those 2024 storms will probably become hurricanes — five of which will be major.

And the most likely landing spots for those storms are along the east coast of Florida and elsewhere on the Eastern Seaboard.

One reason is the weather phenomenon known as El Ni—o, which produces a warm band of water off the west coast of South America and tends to produce high-altitude wind shear, which generally takes the edge off the winds of Atlantic hurricanes. But this year, the evidence shows that El Ni—o is transitioning to its sister phenomenon, La Ni—a, which usually results in more and stronger hurricanes.

Combine that with significantly warming waters off the west coast of Africa, where hurricanes form, and much warmer Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf waters and it all points to a potentially record-breaking storm season.

“We’re very confident this year we’re going to see well above normal hurricane activity,” Klotzbach said.

It’s not just the temperatures on the surface of the ocean that are rising. New data show that even deep down, the heat content of waters is rising – and rising faster than in previous years, he noted.

“We’re going to have one of the warmest years on record in the Atlantic,” he said. “Basically, the die is already cast. We’re so far ahead of schedule.”

Klotzbach said that some data now posits a 62% chance of a major hurricane on the East Coast in the next few months. For eastern Florida, the probability is up to 75%.

“For insurance, the dice are loaded for a big impact this year,” he said.

For some of the Gulf states, there may be a ray of sunshine in the data: The Atlantic north of the Equator is now warmer than just south of the Equator. That tends to push storms more to the north, toward the east coast of Florida and above – and away from the Gulf of Mexico.