Quake Scenario: More than 1M Bay Area Homes Could Suffer Extensive Damage

More than a million San Francisco Bay Area residents would face extensive damage to their homes after a major earthquake on the Hayward fault, according to a new earthquake scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey.

The USGS findings, developed with contributions from partners that include the California Earthquake Authority, are part of a HayWired earthquake scenario report that describes likely impacts from a rupture of the Hayward Fault in the Bay Area.

Authors of the report use a hypothetical magnitude 7.0 earthquake with an epicenter in Oakland and ruptures the Hayward fault along a 52-mile length.

The title “HayWired” also reflects impacts on technology and communications systems.

Dozens of organizations reportedly assisted the scenario development. CEA supplied information on residential earthquake insurance in California and the progress of its residential mitigation programs.

Less than 10 percent of total residential losses from earthquake shaking would be insured because take-up of residential earthquake insurance in the Bay Area is so low, the report shows.

An analysis for the HayWired scenario from CoreLogic, a commercial provider of catastrophe-loss modeling and risk-management solutions, estimates that more than a million homes would be damaged by shaking if the projected HayWired earthquake were to occur.

The CoreLogic model estimates that insured residential losses from HayWired-scenario shaking could be as high as $5 billion or $6 billion.