Meteorologists Offer Conflicting Predictions on 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
A few meteorologists, however, expect this season to be more active than normal with one, Global Weather Oscillations, saying it could be the most active since 2005 when five hurricanes hit the United States.
The 2017 predictions averaged 12 named storms, five hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour).
That compares with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes in 2016 and a 30-year (1981-2010) normal of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) data.
Most forecasters cited potential development of El Nino later this summer as part of the reason for a near-normal season.
“If El Nino fails to launch, we may be too low with our numbers,” said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with the Weather Company, an IBM Corp. business, which forecast 12 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
El Nino is a warming of the water in the central Pacific Ocean and has been linked to weak hurricane seasons.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers predicted a slightly below-average season in mid-April, also citing the potential development of El Nino as well as anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicted 11 named storms, with four becoming hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The CSU team bases its forecasts on 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Nino, and other factors.
The team predicts that 2017 hurricane activity will be about 85 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2016’s hurricane activity was about 135 percent of the average season.
But David Dilley, chief meteorologist at Global Weather Oscillations, predicted 2017 will be the most dangerous and costly in 12 years for the United States due to a lack of El Nino conditions and warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures across most of the Atlantic Basin.
Dilley projected six named storms could hit the United States – the most since 2005 when five hurricanes and two tropical storms hit.
The 2005 Atlantic season was the most active in recorded history, with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes, causing an estimated 1,225 deaths and nearly $143 billion in damage in the United States, according to the NHC.
For the U.S. natural gas market, hurricanes do not pack the same punch as in 2005 because over 60 percent of production has moved from the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico to shale formations far from the coast.
U.S. gas futures hit record highs over $15 per million British thermal units in late 2005 after hurricanes Katrina and Rita slammed into the Gulf Coast. At that time, over 20 percent of the nation’s gas came from the Gulf of Mexico, but that is down to 4 percent now.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)