Pacific May Signal South Tornadoes

Southern states might look to the Pacific for an idea of what the future holds for tornado activity.

The waters of the Pacific Ocean may provide some clues about tornadoes in the South, according to a paper in the journal Nature Geoscience and reported by Bloomberg News.

The study found that if the Pacific Ocean’s surface warms due to an El Nino development, fewer storms are likely across the South. If, however, the ocean cools, which is known as La Nina state, the South can expect the number of tornadoes to increase.

“We can forecast how active the spring tornado season will be based on the state of El Nino or La Nina in December or even earlier,” lead author John Allen, a post-doctoral research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, told Bloomberg.

Strong La Ninas produced more tornadoes and hailstorms across the South, including Oklahoma and Texas. El Ninos had the opposite effect.

According to the Insurance Information Institute, tornadoes are second only to hurricanes and tropical storms in insurance losses.

There are other factors that influence severe storms, the authors said, but the link between El Nino and tornadoes is strongest in the South.