NOAA: No Spring Drought Relief for California, Nevada, Oregon

Californians facing a fourth year of drought conditions — and some other parts of the West – shouldn’t count on any relief in the coming months.

In California this doesn’t bode well for chances of a mild wildfire season, and it’s not good for agriculture or water conservation efforts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in late-March issued its Spring Outlook forecast. It showed moderate flooding was likely in parts of the snow-bogged Eastern U.S., but the biggest concern for NOAA scientists was the persistent drought over the Western U.S.

The long-awaited El Nino finally arrived in February, but forecasters say it’s too weak and too late in the rainy season to provide much relief for California. The weather pattern failed to drench the state as it has in past episodes.

The forecast calls for drought to persist in California, Nevada and Oregon through June with the onset of the dry season in April.

“Looking forward we expect little drought relief in California and the Western U.S.,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The lack of precipitation will likely yield an “early and active wildfire season,” put stress on crops, and expand on water conversation measures being enforced in California, Gottschalck said.

California Gov. Jerry Brown has called for stricter water control measure and the California State Water Resources Control Board set fines of up to $500 a day for residential and business property owners for over-watering lawns.

A NASA scientist in an op-ed in the LA Times in mid-March said the state had one year of water supply left, noting that the usually wet month of January was the driest on record since data began being gathered in 1895.

Water supply outlooks in the Western U.S. range from near normal in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Upper Colorado, to much below normal in California, the Southern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin.

The chances for above-average temperatures are good this spring across the Far West, northern Rockies, and northern Plains eastward to include parts of the western Great Lakes, and for all of Alaska, according to the forecast.