North Carolina Wants Shorter Sea Level Forecast

A North Carolina commission is asking scientists to only make a 30-year prediction of how fast the ocean will rise off the state’s coast.

The N.C. Coastal Resources Commission caused an uproar in 2010 when its scientists predicted ocean levels off North Carolina would rise more than 3 feet over the next 100 years. Developers and local leaders worried the dire prediction would stifle growth along the coast, leading lawmakers to ask the commission to develop a new forecast.

The commission approved the new 30-year time frame last month.

The significantly shorter time period should give the prediction more credibility, and the commission will get updates every five years so they can react if the prediction of how fast sea levels will rise increases, commission chairman Frank Gorham III said.

“I know some people do not like disagreeing with the scientists’ timeline,” Gorham said. “Our job is to make policy. A rolling 30-year average seems like a sound business way to make this policy.”

Commission member Bob Emory voted against the proposal. He says a 100-year forecast should be issued along with a 30-year forecast.

“I don’t see why we couldn’t do both,” Emory said. “We can make clear that, based on an 85- or 100-year forecast, we’re not calling for regulation. But we can provide it for the public as an informational and educational opportunity.”

Along with calling for the new forecast, lawmakers also ordered a moratorium on new policies to handle rising sea levels until 2016.