Survey: Execs Expect Flood Insurance Delay, TRIA Renewal, Industry Consolidation

A survey conducted at the Insurance Information Institute’s Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum in New York this month asked industry leaders for their outlook on 12 topics – ranging from the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and the Biggert-Waters Act of 2012 to the industry’s combined ratio and premium growth.

On the federal terrorism insurance backstop, 93 percent of those polled said they expect the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which is set to expire Dec. 31, 2014, to be reauthorized by Congress.

On the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, 75 percent said they expect Congress to delay implementation. (A few days after the poll was taken, Congress passed an omnibus spending bill that postpones for about eight months some of the flood insurance rate hikes triggered by Biggert-Waters. But prospects for a broader and longer four-year delay of flood insurance changes were dealt a setback when House leadership indicated it does not support a four-year delay.)

The survey also showed many executives are expecting a stricter regulatory environment in the year ahead — with 70 percent saying they believe the federal government is interested in further expanding its regulatory oversight of insurers.

Forum participants included nearly 250 representatives from P/C insurance and reinsurance companies and organizations. Of these, roughly 40 percent responded.

Broken down by lines of insurance, 35 percent said they expect improved profitability in personal auto in 2014, while 45 percent said they expect improved profitability in homeowners lines. Only 40 percent said they expect an improvement in commercial lines.

In the poll, 30 percent said they expect premium growth to be higher in 2014; 42 percent said it would remain flat; and 28 percent said it would be lower.

In terms of capacity, as measured by policyholders’ surplus, 73 percent said they expect it to increase; 20 percent said it would remain flat; and 7 percent said it would decrease.

And 68 percent said they expect the combined ratio to be higher in 2014. The combined ratio improved by 5.8 percentage points to 96.6 percent in the first nine months of 2013, from 100.9 percent in the first nine months of 2012.

Additionally, 75 percent said they expect an increase in consolidation among insurers and reinsurers in 2014.