2012 Hurricane Season Active at Halfway Point

At its midpoint, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season has seen 14 tropical storms, with seven strengthening to hurricane status. According to catastrophe modeling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS), the current hurricane season has been active.

Hurricane Michael intensified into a Category 3 hurricane on Sept. 6, but only maintained that status for six hours.

Sept. 10 is officially classed as the peak of the hurricane season. As of Sept. 13, the 2012 season is the second most active — tied with 1936 — since records began in 1851, in terms of the number of named storms. Only 2005 and 2011 had more named storms as of that date.

Eight tropical storms formed in August, making August 2012 the most active August in terms of Atlantic basin tropical storm activity, tied with the 2004 season.

Between 1950 and 2011 on average four tropical storms formed in September, with an average of five tropical storms forming in September between 1995 and 2011. (2004 had four tropical storms in September, and 2005 had five tropical storms in September — all of which strengthened to hurricanes.)

“Seasonal forecasts for 2012, issued at the beginning of August called for around 14 tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2012,” said Dr. Christine Ziehmann, director of Model Product Management at RMS. “The 2012 season is currently on track to exceed these forecasts, especially if September is typical of the 1995-2011 average.”

A weak to moderate El Niño is forecast to develop during September, which has the potential to inhibit tropical storm development. However, through the 2004 hurricane season a weak El Niño was prevalent and there was still an above-average number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. The 2004 season closed with 14 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes.