Atlantic Storm Forecast Raised

Colorado State University researchers have raised their forecast for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season to 13 tropical storms, with five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

In April they forecast 10 tropical storms, with four strengthening into hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles (178 km) per hour during the six-month season that began June 1.

The revised numbers would still be slightly below average for hurricanes in the region that includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, the pioneering forecast team said.

“We have increased our numbers slightly from our early April forecast, due largely to our uncertainty as to whether an El Niño will develop later this summer as well as somewhat marginal Atlantic basin conditions,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecasts.

The Climate Glossary – El Niño weather pattern, marked by a warming of the tropical Pacific, tends to bring shearing winds that deter hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Several forecast groups have predicted El Niño would form by late summer, when the Atlantic hurricane season moves into its busiest period.

The CSU forecast includes the two Atlantic tropical storms that sprang up in May before the official start of the season.