7-Day Advance Storm Forecasts Not Far Away

National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said that science will improve to the point where forecasters can reliably issue forecasts showing where a hurricane will be a week ahead of time.

“We’re two to five years from a seven-day forecast,” Read told reporters while attending a South Carolina conference with representatives of other federal agencies to discuss hurricane forecasting and warning.

He noted the National Weather Service now issues regular daily weather forecasts a week out — but not yet for hurricanes.

“But no one makes decisions based on that kind of forecast that can kill them,” Read said.

“There is plenty of time to recover from a bad decision to play golf on Saturday when it’s Monday; it’s not going to kill you. If you start moving nursing home patients at seven days (ahead) you could kill them.”

Read said the Hurricane Center, which now issues five-day forecasts on the giant storms, doesn’t want to issue a seven-day forecast until there is greater confidence in the predictions.