Study: U.S. Metro Areas Most Able to Withstand a Disaster

Which U.S. metro region is most likely to come out of the next economic recession, natural disaster or other regional “shock” relatively unscathed?

According to University at Buffalo researchers, Washington, D.C, is a very good place to be. Other major cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle and Pittsburgh also fare well on the list, but Los Angeles, Miami and Las Vegas do not.

However, Rochester, Minnesota, actually tops the list, while College Station-Bryan, Texas, would not be so lucky. These two regions are ranked first and last, respectively, by a new online tool measuring more than 360 U.S. metros for their “regional resilience,” or capacity to weather acute and chronic stresses ranging from gradual economic decline to rapid population gains to earthquakes and floods.

The Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), developed by Kathryn A. Foster, director of the Regional Institute, a public policy center of the University at Buffalo, the State University of New York, produces a single statistic for each region based on 12 economic, socio-demographic and community connectivity indicators, ranging from income equality and business environment to voter participation and the population of health-insured.

Foster developed the index as part of Building Resilient Regions, a network of experts on metropolitan regions funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and administered by the University of California, Berkeley.

Overall, Northeastern and Midwestern regions tend to be more resilient than those in the South or West, largely because these regions earn high scores for affordability, size of health-insured population, rates of homeownership and metropolitan stability.

For instance, the Buffalo-Niagara metro region ranks among the nation’s top regions for its metropolitan stability and health-insured population. However, lower rankings on indicators such as income equality, business environment and population without disabilities to some degree offset its assets to give this metro an overall RCI rank of 86, still categorized as high.

The top-scoring metros are geographically diverse. Raleigh, North Carolina, with leading technology firms, medical centers and universities, heads the economic category. Ames, Iowa, ranks first for socio-demographic capacity due to its exceptionally high level of educational attainment. For community connectivity, Bismarck, North Dakota, scores highest given its civic institutions.

Metropolitan areas with populations over 1 million vary widely in their resilience. The top-ranking large metropolitan area, Minneapolis-St. Paul, achieves its status with very high socio-demographic capacity and levels of community connection. The lowest ranking large metropolitan area is Miami, Florida, a region with very low regional affordability and income equality.

According to Foster, a region’s RCI score is not necessarily a sentence for success or failure in the face of the next population boom, economic recession or industry shutdown. “What it does tell us is that some regions are structurally more prepared than others, and thus have greater capacity to bounce back in the wake of stress,” she said. “Still, regions with a high capacity for resilience can squander their strengths just as those ranked low can rise to the occasion and perform above expectations.”