El Niño to Influence Winter, Or Not, Say Forecasters

It will be a tale of two winters in the United States – warmer and drier than average in the North and wetter and cooler in the South – thanks to El Niño, according to government forecasters.

In its winter outlook covering December through February, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the El Niño phenomenon will be the dominant factor influencing weather across the U.S. The impact of the weather anomaly in the Pacific Ocean is most evident during winter.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

El Niño is an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific every four to five years, which can wreak havoc on weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

NOAA forecast temperatures to be warmer than average across much of the western and central U.S. and below average in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas northward to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.

The forecast for the Northeast, the world’s largest heating oil market, called for equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Long-term forecasts for the region are difficult because weather there is generally not influenced by El Niño but by other factors.

In contrast to what NOAA is predicting, AccuWeather.com has forecast a weakening El Niño weather pattern that could lead to the stormiest and coldest U.S. winter in recent years.

Weather forecasters polled by Reuters tend to agree that the Northeast is in for a stormy winter.

Also, above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should ease current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. Ohio and Tennessee river valleys can expect to be drier than average.