The avian flu pandemic: businesses ignore planning at their peril

It’s reasonable to assume that an avian flu pandemic could take flight in the near future, and companies need to prepare a response, according to Rick Casse, former director of business continuity planning for Gap Inc.

According to Casse, the influenza that could become a human pandemic is H5N1, a bird flu strain. The concern occurs when the bird virus jumps from the birds to the human population.

“There’s a big reservoir of viruses out there in the wild bird populations,” he said. “Sometimes when those viruses get from the wild bird population into domestic poultry, you see the die-offs that we’ve already seen … that’s been affecting the world.”

Of the 1,100 or so human pathogens that people are subject to, about 700 of those originated in animals, Casse added. “We’re part of a long chain where viruses start in this case in bird populations and then move into human populations.”

Casse was the keynote speaker at a recent meeting of the Golden Gate Chapter of the Risk and Insurance Management Society.

Viruses can change

Viruses can change internally, he said, creating new strains against which humans have no immunity. If that happens, a worldwide pandemic could spread from person to person and cause many deaths.

There have been three major pandemics in the 20th century. The one most similar to today’s potential avian flu pandemic is the Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million people based on World Health Organization statistics. For comparison, Casse said about 700 people died from the SARS outbreak in 2003.

Every year, 36,000 people die from the seasonal flu, typically the elderly, infirm or very young. The concern with an avian flu is that people with weaker immune systems are not the ones dying, Casse said. “Today’s H5N1 virus has been killing healthy people as opposed to the seasonal flu, which typically affects people with weakened immune systems,” he said.

The first outbreaks of human cases of H5N1 were in Hong Kong in 1997. “So why do we think it’s a threat and not just Y2K all over again?” Casse asked. It wasn’t until last year that the virus really got into the wild bird population and began spreading rapidly across the globe, he explained. “Now, we have increased the exposure of people to the existing virus and multiplied it multiple times.”

The virus now is widespread throughout wild and domestic bird populations in Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa, Casse said. Cases have not yet been confirmed in North or South America. However, the virus is spreading from birds to mammals, indicating that it is mutating. “It’s those potential mutations to the virus that make it more easily transmitted among people and create some of the risk of a pandemic,” Casse said.

Ten countries have confirmed cases in which humans have been infected and people have died.

“To highlight why The Gap has taken this seriously, of those 10 countries, we do business in six of them,” Casse said. “So it became very high on our radar.”

“There’s a prediction that if [a pandemic] lands in San Francisco on Monday, it will be in New York by Friday. There is not going to be much warning. It will be worldwide … When it will peak is partially going to be determined by the public health response to it,” Casse said.

Health officials predict that a pandemic could make between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population ill at one time, and there will be waves of sick people. “How many folks are going to need care from one of their loved ones who may be unable to go to work? How many of them are going to be children who can’t go to school and are going to require some child care? The business impact of that kind of absenteeism is significant,” Casse said.

Consequently, businesses need a plan that takes into account a severe illness that could go on for 12 to 18 months, he said, and could affect the worker population, customers and suppliers.

Thus, businesses’ and the public’s ability to stop the virus from spreading will play a big role in containing the pandemic. It’s important for businesses and the public to plan.

“Respiratory etiquette is key,” Casse said. The most common way respiratory diseases spread is by hand to mouth, hand to nose. “If nothing else, remember to wash your hand,” he said.

With respect to business operations, businesess must remember that any outbreak will be a global event. So if one facility is affected, all are. Also, the need for cash might be greatly increased, he said.

“Most businesses would have a tough time accommodating an absenteeism rate of 50 percent,” he said. But he said scientists predict it will take six to 12 months for the first batches of a vaccine to get to market.

“If a car runs into your power pole, what if they can’t repair it for a week?” he asked. “There are lots of considerations that need to be put into your plan. Are you going to pay people for 12 months if they decide they can’t work because their child can’t go to school?”

Casse said firms need to to consider whether their infrastructure can support a work from home strategy? “Can the telephone and cable companies support the number of people who plan to work from home?” he asked.

He also suggested companies assess who are essential employees who will not be able to work from home, such as network administrators. “How do you provide support [for them] when there’s an impact of this extent?”

Businesses should consider whether there is a technology solution, such as video conferencing to minimize face-to-face contact. Companies may need to allow people to work different shifts and strategize for each workplace. Communication is key, he said.

Finally, Casse noted, people need to know how to take care of themselves and their families. “Pandemics happen. What we don’t know is when it’s going to happen and how bad it’s going to be,” he said.