Sen. Frist Prescribes 6-Point Plan Against Avian Flu

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who is a medical doctor, has called for the U.S. to take aggressive measures to fend against the severe economic damage brought on by an avian flu pandemic.

Citing a Congressional Budget Office report prepared at his request, Frist maintained that the avian flu could strike a $675 billion blow to the U.S. economy, a five percent loss in the gross domestic product.

“A $675 billion potential hit to our economy — almost half of which is brought on by fear and confusion that can be eliminated by planning–gives us every reason to begin preparing a prescription and implementing a course of action today,” Frist said.

“The prescription is simple–communication, surveillance, antivirals, vaccines, research, stockpiling and surge capacity. We have the intellect, the ingenuity, and the knowledge to soften the blow. My duty as an elected official, and as a doctor, is to ensure that we begin filling that prescription today. Our economy, our country, our lives depend on it.”

The CBO report assumed that a severe pandemic would infect 90 million people in the U.S. and result in two million U.S. deaths. Thirty percent of the workforce would become ill and miss at least three weeks of work.

In addition to a reduction in the labor force, the supply-side impacts would also include disruptions in the supply chain and a shortage of health care personnel and medical care. In total, supply impacts would cause the nation’s GDP to decline by three percent in the year the pandemic occurs.

The effects on demand would also be severe, due in part to the public’s fear and uncertainty–much like what was witnessed during the 2003 SARS outbreak. Industries where customers are forced to congregate would take a severe hit: demand would fall by 80 percent in entertainment, arts, recreation, restaurants and lodging, and retail trade would drop by 25 percent. A fear of travel, coupled with government-imposed restrictions, would lead to a dramatic decline in domestic and international travel. In total, demand-side impacts would result in a two percent drop in GDP.

To prepare for and mitigate the effects of an avian flu pandemic, Frist outlined a “6-Point Prescription” for the nation. The plan’s six points include: a strong communication effort to educate the public and ally irrational fear; surveillance to stem the spread of the flu and delay the onset of pandemic; increasing the supply of antivirals to treat at least 75 million people; boosting vaccine manufacturing capacity in order to stockpile enough vaccine for every American when an effective vaccine is available; fostering public-private research and development to better defend against infectious disease; and mobilizing the personnel and medical supplies to respond when a pandemic hits.