California Heating Up, Could Face More Blackouts

More frequent and intense heat waves that are expected in California during the next 100 years could overburden the state’s electric utility grid and cause rolling blackouts, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab).

“If a large area of California is hot and there is also demand on the energy grid throughout the Western U.S., these conditions will likely lead to blackouts,” said Norm Miller, a Berkeley Lab climatologist who examined the effect heat extremes will have on the Golden State’s energy demands.

Miller presented the study at the 2nd Annual Climate Change Research Conference and the First Scientific Conference of the West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative, which took place in Sacramento on Sept. 14-16, 2005.

In the energy demand analysis, Miller’s team analyzed several greenhouse gas emission scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations-formed organization that informs the world’s policymakers about climate change and its effects. The emission scenarios were coupled with heat wave trends in California, and determined that the onset of heat waves will come earlier each summer, be more frequent and last longer in future summers. In one scenario, for example, Los Angeles may experience up to six times more heat wave days each summer toward the end of this century, according to the study.

That could force people to crank up air conditioners and other residential cooling appliances, which could impose too much demand on the state’s electric utility grid, Miller said. His analysis of projected heat extremes and energy demand indicates that in Los Angeles, there may be seven times more occurrences when temperatures reach or exceed the threshold at which people turn on air conditioners. He found similar sharp increases in other California cities.

Energy demand is on the rise, according to the study. Currently, world demand for energy is approximately equivalent to a continuous power consumption of 13 trillion watts (13 TW). An expected global population of 9 billion and technology growth is projected to more than double energy demand to 30 TW by 2050, and to more than triple demand to 46 TW by 2099 even with aggressive conservation and energy efficiency.

Energy demand also is booming in the West, where California, Nevada and Arizona experienced record high temperatures in July 2005. In California, future electricity demand due to extreme temperatures during the summer is expected to approach 65 megawatts by 2010 from a demand of approximately 55 megawatts in the summer of 2004.

The surge is due in part to a growing population and a housing boom in California’s Central Valley, which experiences hot summers. The residential sector is one of the fastest-growing energy consumers in the state.

“Once it gets to about 80 degrees, there is an almost linear relationship between temperature and energy load,” Miller said. “The question then becomes how will the energy grid sustain all this.”

The answer lies in how the energy grid is managed, he added. When California’s operating reserves fall below 7 percent, a stage 1 alert ensues. A stage 2 alert kicks in if operating reserves fall below 5 percent. A stage 3 alert with rolling blackouts occurs when operating reserves dip below 3 percent. Miller cautions that if the West experiences a summer of widespread and prolonged heat extremes, California’s operating reserves may drop below 3 percent, leading to blackouts and adverse economic impacts.

However, Miller also believes communities are not destined for rolling blackouts. The adoption of energy efficient technologies and cultural adaptations that make people less reliant on the energy grid during warm spells, such as using fans instead of air conditioners, would change his predictions.

“I have an optimistic view of the future,” he said. “We can offset energy demand by changing social behaviors and incorporating new technologies.”

The research was funded by the California Energy Commission and California Environmental Protection Agency as part of the West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative. The analysis also was conducted by Jiming Jin and Alan Sanstad of Berkeley Lab, Katharine Hayhoe of AtmosResearch Consulting, and Maxmilian Auffhammer of UC Berkeley.