Hurricane Forecast: New Jersey To Get Hit Sooner or Later

For decades, New Jersey has been spared the wrath of major hurricanes, the storms usually veering out to sea before they can wreak havoc on the densely developed coast.

But eventually the state’s luck will run out, the head of the National Hurricane Center said.

“It will. I can’t tell you when,” said Max Mayfield, in an interview following an address to emergency management officials and insurance company representatives.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won’t make its predictions for the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season until next month. Hurricane season runs from June to November. If recent history is any indicator, the eastern U.S. could be in for more trouble this summer.

Last year was one of the most active, destructive hurricane seasons on record, with six major storms walloping Florida and the Caribbean, prompting 27 disaster-area declarations in 15 states. The 2004 season continued a turbulent trend that began in 1995 and shows no sign of abating, according to Mayfield. “We’ve had more tropical storms and more hurricanes since 1995 than in any other 10-year consecutive period on record,” said Mayfield.

The presence of warm ocean water, a phenomenon that historically parallels active hurricane seasons, suggests no shortage of storms in 2005, he told the New Jersey Emergency Preparedness Association.

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