The Beaver State – No Self-Serve Gas, One-Way Streets, and Ghost Towns

The United States Census Bureau’s Census 2000 estimated the population of the State of Oregon at 3,421,399. Approximately 85 percent of the adult residents had graduated from high school and about 25 percent had earned a bachelor’s degree or higher. The capital, Salem, has a population of 136,924.

From an employment perspective, the primary industries in Oregon are:

From a P/C insurance perspective, Oregon accounted for $4,737,920,000 of direct written premium. Countrywide as of Sept. 30, 2003 the aggregate is $313,781,216,000 of P/C insurance written. Oregon calendar year 2002 loss ratio of 78.1 percent was above the countrywide year to date Sept. 30, 2003 loss ratio of 62.3 percent. It was interesting to note that Oregon’s Homeowners’ loss ratio for calendar year 2002 was 66.0 percent compared to the countrywide average at Sept. 30, 2003 of 61.8 percent.

What surprised me the most was that Oregon Farmowners insurance premium for calendar year 2002 was $37,604,000. I expected it to be more. However, in a state with 28,102 farming, fishing and forestry employees, perhaps that is about right.

The Oregon economy is poised for growth. The employed civilian population comprises 48 percent of Oregon’s population. It is distributed as follows:

Given the anticipated growth in the number of jobs located in Oregon and the diversification of the Oregon economy, I would expect the growth rate of Oregon’s P/C insurance marketplace, as measured by direct premium written, to exceed the growth rate experienced on a countrywide basis.

This article was written by Joseph L. Petrelli, president and founder of Demotech Inc. Demotech Inc. is a Columbus, Ohio-based financial analysis and actuarial services firm. Petrelli is a member of the Casualty Actuarial Society, American Academy of Actuaries and the Conference of Actuaries in Public Practice. Additional information can be found at www.demotech.com.