Turning Up the Heat

My home base is in Austin, Texas, and anyone who lives here knows — it’s been an excruciatingly hot and dry summer. Nearly the entire state of Texas is experiencing a severe level of drought — the worst since 2011. And while the state is finally receiving much needed rainfall in late August, it won’t be enough to replenish our valuable water supply.

Higher temperatures and dwindling water supply might be something we’ll have to get used to.

According to a recent study by First Street Foundation, in just 30 years, more than a quarter of the U.S., including a large patch of the Upper Midwest, will face days with temperatures above 125 degrees and will see nearly three times as many days above 103 degrees. After experiencing more than 50 days of triple-digit temperatures in 2022 so far, the thought of that number tripling is quite unsettling.

First Street Foundation, which in recent years has analyzed data to show flooding impacts and wildfire risk due to climate change, predicted in its study that the Miami area will feel the most severe shift in temperatures in coming years. Miami-Dade County, which already experiences at least seven days at 103 degrees or higher, will see 34 such days, classified as “dangerous days” by the group.

“Across the country, dangerous days — days exceeding the 100°F threshold from the National Weather Service — occur more commonly in the southern half of contiguous United States and impact a greater number of properties in Florida and Texas,” First Street said. “Since warmer air has a higher capacity to hold water, increasing evaporation will result in more humid conditions. Increased average temperatures and humidity have a compounding effect on heat indexes, which make health impacts more likely.”

The 6th Annual National Risk Assessment report, based on government weather data, third-party data, and computer modeling, found extreme heat will likely be concentrated in some unexpected places. Although parts of the Deep South and Southwest have long felt the heat, the 125-degree days will be seen as far north as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin. Parts of the Eastern Seaboard, including counties in North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia, will also experience superheated summer days.

The more persistent and more extreme temperatures will have impact everything from health, to wildlife, to electricity costs, to infrastructure and public transport, the report noted.