Here We Go Again

The odd-numbered year scenario could come as close to predicting hurricanes as hurricane forecasting experts have recently.

Gulf Coast residents: It’s time to cross your fingers, pull out the old rabbit’s foot, avoid breaking mirrors or walking under ladders, knock on wood, or whatever else you do to ensure that luck is on your side.

Why? Because hurricane season is upon us and national hurricane forecasters are once again saying the seasonal Atlantic storm activity will be normal or above average.

They’ve said pretty much the same thing for the past few years. In 2005, of course, it came true in a very big and destructive way. 2006 and 2007, however, were relatively mild, especially compared with 2004 and 2005.

The Associated Press reported forecasters predict there’s a 60 to 70 percent chance the Atlantic will produce 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes this year. However, officials worry coastal residents will ignore such projections if they think the forecast is inaccurate. After all, last year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 13 to 17 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes, three of which would be major. But no severe storms made landfall in the United States, and the worry is people will become complacent.

A little worry might be justified. In a recent poll of coastal residents from Maine to South Texas, Allstate Insurance Company said a little more than half indicated they were prepared for a hurricane, but most had no evacuation plan in place.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator R. David Paulison has said his agency is now better prepared to handle such disasters than it was when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, according to the AP. But Paulison also said people need to be personally responsible and take hurricane forecasts seriously.

Curiously enough, Texas may just dodge the bullet again this year, if the state’s experience in the past two decades holds true.

The Insurance Council of Texas reported that hurricanes have struck Texas only on odd-numbered years for the past two decades. Ever since the National Hurricane Center began naming hurricanes in 1953, only three of the 16 hurricanes to hit Texas appeared on even-numbered years.

The ICT’s Mark Hanna said the odd-numbered year scenario could come as close to predicting hurricanes as hurricane forecasting experts have recently.

May the odds of the even years bring luck for all of us during this hurricane season.