Flu hope, not hype

Does the world seem to be careening from one crisis to another, or is it all hype by news outlets?

Unfortunately, it’s not hype; it’s reality. Not a day goes by without reports of terrorist threats and attacks somewhere around the globe. The AIDS epidemic seems to be worsening in certain parts of the world. Victims of California’s New Year’s Eve flooding, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita along the Gulf Coast are still struggling to put their lives back together, as are those who managed to survive the Indian Ocean tsunami a year ago and the giant earthquake in Pakistan and Kashmir just three months ago.

Now, the world is being warned of another potential crisis. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently advised that avian flu is just “one step away” from being a pandemic. Speaking at an event sponsored by broker Marsh and its affiliates Kroll and Mercer, Dr. Toby Merlin of the CDC laid out the facts. Of the 135 known human cases, the mortality rate is 50 percent. “It is quite lethal as we see it now,” he said.

In November, broker Aon produced a white paper on the risks posed by such a pandemic. It reminds us of World Health Organization predictions that 25 percent of the workforce would be debilitated at any one time should a a widespread outbreak occur. Analysis by the Insurance Information Institute estimates a severe avian flu outbreak could cause an estimated $133 billion in death claims.

The good news is that there’s no human influenza pandemic at this time — nor is one imminent. However, the new strain of influenza virus (H5N1) found in birds in Asia can infect humans. If the virus mutates in certain ways, it is possible that it could lead to disaster.

Because this threat exists, it is important for businesses to be knowledgeable about the risks and be adequately prepared for the possibility of a pandemic that would have significant social and economic costs.

As with any of the risks that our country faces, including natural disasters and potential terrorist attacks, all segments of society must be prepared. President George W. Bush, the CDC, the Departments of Commerce, Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security are calling upon businesses to plan within their own organizations for the possibility of an influenza pandemic.

The President has released the Administration’s National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. The government strategy includes establishing a new international partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, stockpiling vaccines and antiviral medications, expanding early-warning systems here and abroad, and developing new initiatives for local and state level preparedness against the threat of a pandemic.

To ensure maximum preparedness, businesses should develop their own plans to protect their employees and maintain operations during a pandemic. Companies that provide critical infrastructure services, such as power and telecommunications, also have a special responsibility to ensure operations can continue during a crisis.

The CDC has developed materials including a checklist to assist in the planning for a pandemic outbreak. For more information, visit www.pandemicflu.gov.

The criticisms that the flu warnings are mere hype are harmful because they erode hope and discourage planning. While preparing, substitute hope for hype — and keep praying that the pandemic crisis checklist is never needed.