Wildfire in 2015: What to Expect?

The past two years did not result in the amount of wildfire activity that many wildfire scientists, foresters and fire responders had expected. Looking back, the 2013 season had the earmarks of a bad year, with the continued U.S. drought and related accumulation of dry fuels.

The 2014 season saw an enhancement of the drought in many areas and even more trepidation about the potential for a spark that would ignite massive firestorms similar to or even greater than the huge blazes in Southern California in 2003 and 2007. While there were wildfires in 2013 and 2014, they never came close in total size or number to the fires that were anticipated for those years. So what happened, and what can we expect in 2015?

The two most commonly used metrics of wildfire activity are the number of fires and the total size of the area burned. In 2013, there were 47,579 wildfires in the United States that consumed a total of 4.3 million acres of land. These figures account for the fewest number of fires and the fifth lowest acreage burned since 2000. Then last year, we saw a total of 63,312 fires and 3.6 million acres burned, representing the second fewest total fires and also the third lowest burned acreage looking back over the previous 15 years. Although it would appear contradictory to have such low wildfire activity during years in which record-setting drought was common throughout nearly all of the Western U.S., there is no “smoking gun” that caused reduced activity. However, two factors likely contributed.

First is the obvious issue of fire response. From post-fire media articles, it was clear that response to even small fires in the Western states was in many cases overwhelming in 2013 and 2014. By dedicating large amounts of equipment and personnel to respond as quickly as possible to fight new fires, it helped to reduce the overall size and effect of these blazes. In many cases this prevented them from damaging homes.

Another critical factor in wildfire reduction would be property owner mitigation. In many regions, homeowners in areas of elevated wildfire risk are working to reduce the opportunity for wildfires to migrate onto their property like clearing brush to create defensible space, re-roofing and many other options in-between. Mitigation has gained a larger following due to the efforts of Firewise and other such entities and agencies that are promoting proactive ways to reduce wildfire impact.

If the overall number of fires and the total acreage burned is not indicative of the amount of property damage that can occur, what factors are? The answer is largely the same as it would be for any natural disaster: hail storms, hurricanes, floods and fires all have a geographic footprint. Where that footprint falls in relation to the population is the driving factor in determining property damage.

It appears that this states the obvious, but it is often overlooked when we see the figures related to natural hazards. The discussion of fewer hurricanes or earthquakes really doesn’t mean much when it only takes one such event in the wrong place (ala Superstorm Sandy) to wreak havoc on the local population and begin tabulating damages in the tens of billions of dollars. The same is true of wildfires.

What is important to consider for any hazard, including wildfire, is that last year’s numbers, or the decadal average, does not accurately indicate the potential damage for the present or upcoming year. The most accurate method of determining risk from these hazards is to evaluate the risk on and around a property, and to prepare for the coming year with the understanding that these events will happen in the future as they have in the past.