Charting COVID: 1 Year In!
On March 20,2020, I began tracking COVID – specifically the daily numbers of new cases, deaths and recoveries. I undertook this task for several reasons: I enjoy data, I wasn’t going anywhere for a while, but more specifically so that I could discuss the reality of the numbers intelligently.
Clearly discernable trends have emerged over the last year. “Waves,” as some call them, are evident in the charts.
Within this paper I provide the charts that have developed from my nightly tracking. Although I have developed my own opinions and conclusions, NO conclusions are drawn, NO commentary is given, and NO opinion is provided in this report. This is purely data for data sake. You must draw your own conclusions, provide your own commentary and develop your own opinion.
Information used to develop these charts has been tracked and recorded NIGHTLY since March 20, 2020. All information used as part of this tracking program is taken from WorldOMeter.com, Johns Hopkins and several state websites. Although each of these information sources undertake to provide correct data, neither they nor I can guarantee the information.
Because one day does not constitute a trend, these charts apply a 14-day rolling average. A 14-day rolling average was chosen because it removes the extreme spikes and valleys that are present in daily counts and even the spikes found in a 7-day rolling average. When this 14-day rolling average is NOT used, the description for that chart specifies the time period applied.
Data reported in these charts represents slightly more than one year between March 20, 2020, and March 31, 2021.
The only commentary provided is a description of the information graphed by the chart.
Shall we begin? I hope you find this information interesting if not valuable.
Daily New Cases
This charts the daily case count, again based on a 14-day rolling average.
Daily Deaths
The following charts daily deaths applying the 14-day rolling average.
Daily Death Rate
This charts the daily death rate. The death rate presented in this chart is calculated by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of new cases for that day. Although not an exact indication of the rolling death rate, because this chart uses the 14-day rolling average of cases and deaths, it is somewhat representative of the actual death rate.
Recoveries
Following is the 14-day rolling recovery average.
New Cases Compared to Recoveries
Two data points are compared in the following chart: 1) the daily new cases; and 2) the daily recoveries. The daily new cases are represented by the blue line and the orange line tracks recoveries. Again, these are using the 14-day rolling averages.
Combined Comparison
Three key data points are compared in the following chart: 1) Total reported cases; 2) Total recoveries; and 3) Total active. UNLIKE prior charts, this chart does NOT use a 14-day rolling average – this graphic charts actual daily numbers.
The blue line is total reported cases; the orange indicates recoveries; and gray tracks active cases.
US Percentage of Total Deaths
According to WorldOMeter, COVID has affected 216 countries and territories – truly worldwide. The US accounts for approximately 4.29% of the world’s population. This chart tracks the percentage of worldwide COVID deaths occurred in the US.
Like the previous comparison chart, this chart is NOT on a 14-day rolling, this tracks the daily percentage from March 20, 2020 to March 31, 2021.
Following are three charts providing monthly information rather than a 14-day rolling average or even a daily charting of numbers. The following charts compare new cases, new deaths, and new recoveries for the months April 2020 through March 2021 (12 months).
Monthly New Cases
Monthly New Deaths
Monthly New Recoveries
Overall Comparison
This last chart is essentially a tracking of the overall COVID numbers from March 21, 2020, through March 31, 2021. This chart compares all COVID numbers to the US population. The color codes applicable are:
- Dark Blue (at top): US Population
- Red/Orange: Total Number of Reported Cases
- Yellow: Total Recoveries
- Gray: Active Cases (Total Current)
- Light Blue: Total Deaths
The vertical axis is in 5 million increments.